The latest Hurricane Earl tracking.

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UPDATE 12:31 P.M.: An update on Maryland's emergency preparations, via The Associated Press.

Gov. Martin O'Malley has advised travelers not to drive to or from Ocean City during the height of stormy weather from Hurricane Earl, which is expected Thursday night and Friday.

O'Malley noted many forecasters are expecting good weather for Labor Day weekend after Earl passes, that includes ABC 7 Senior Meteorologist Bob Ryan.

O'Malley added it is unlikely Ocean City will need to be evacuated.

UPDATE 11:59 A.M.: Chris Naille's thoughts on Earl: As of this morning my thoughts are that the only local impacts may be a bit of a breeze and a few added clouds. The heaviest or most direct impacts will be along the beaches where there they can expect gusty winds, some rain, dangerous rip currents, and possible beach erosion. For those of you heading to the beach beware that even though weather conditions will improve Saturday and Sunday dangerous rip currents will remain a threat.

Update 11:02 a.m.: Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell declared a state of emergency for Virginia, in a move that will make additional resources available and allow state agencies to take precautionary actions.

"The current forecast has Hurricane Earl passing east of Virginia later this week. However, a change in the storm's path could bring hazardous weather conditions to eastern Virginia,” McDonnell said.

EMERGENCY TO BE DECLARED 9:12: The Washington Times via AP reports that Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell plans to declare a state of emergency later this morning in anticipation of the storm.

UPDATE 6:40: Just adding a bit of meat to that 5:07 update: According to a Wall Street Journal account built heavily on AP reporting, Earl's winds have lost steam and now hover around 125 miles per hour (a slow-down of around 10 miles per hour). But this is a key point---the National Hurricane Center is saying that "fluctuations in strength were possible over the next 48 hours." The storm's course is still very much TBD as well. Could stay over the Atlantic but could also "veer west" and hit land. Please stay tuned right here. 

UPDATE 5:07 A.M.: Hurricane Earl has weakened to a Category 3 storm as a hurricane watch is issued for the Virginia coast, The Associated Press reports.

UPDATE 9:15: The following factoid comes from a WTOP piece on Earl and its pre-ravages: "In Ocean City, lifeguards rescued nearly 500 people from rip currents last weekend." What do these fellows earn?

UPDATE 8:45: Let's turn now to the reporting of ABC7's Brad Bell, who's been all over the Ocean City surf like foam. In this piece, he's saying that  some vacationers at O.C. are planning on scooting out of town on Thursday and  that the area's lifeguards are still dealing with dangerous rip currents. He even tracked down one Trent Sprenkle, who had a harrying experience in the ocean. Sprenkle tells Bell: "So I'm trying to get back in and I'm starting to get tired. I saw the lifeguard and I was like maybe he could help me." He did, and Sprenkle (obviously) lived to tell the tale.

UPDATE 8:39: Interesting piece by Patrick Thibodeau of Computerworld via Reuters on the possibility that Earl could disrupt telecommuting arrangements up and down the East coast. The local hook: "In a report released last month, the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments estimated that there as may be as many as 600,000 workers, or about 25% of the region's workforce, who telework at least one day a week." And high winds could cut those folks off.

ANOTHER NASA PHOTO OF EARL 7:09 P.M.: This was taken yesterday, but who cares? TBD Reporter Sarah Larimer is impressed:

"That NASA photo is pretty cool. I can't really tell it's a hurricane but I'm sure some people can," she says.

By way of explanation, from NASA's Hurricane Web Page on Facebook (NASA has a Facebook page? Of course it does!):

NASA GRIP MISSION UPDATE: The DC-8’s Aug. 30 flight to Hurricane Earl passed through the eye of the storm six times. All scientific instruments onboard were operating and 28 dropsondes were launched. The DC-8 stopped for refueling in St. Croix before returning to Fort Lauderdale late Monday evening. There was no flight of the DC-8 on Tuesday, Aug. 31.

ABC 7 HAS LIVE TRUCKS THE SIZE OF BACKPACKS BUT TBD DOESN'T EVEN HAVE BRANDED RAIN GEAR 6:21: Don't you think that should be a priority? This guest aggregator does.

THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR IS GETTING GREAT PLAY ON GOOGLE NEWS 6:04 P.M. And it plays the family guilt card. Listen to this:

"Bill Read, the director of the National Hurricane Center, said Tuesday that he expects the first signs of the storm to come late Wednesday with big waves along the North Carolina coast. By Friday, Long Island and Cape Cod could see the big swells and dangerous rip currents.

'If it were my family, I would know what I was going to do and make that decision as the storm gets closer,' says Mr. Read."

WHAT A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS 5:44 p.m.: After the previous guest aggregator left without saying goodbye, and just before a HURRICANE WATCH was issued, the new guest aggregator consoled herself with gratuitous use of HTML. See below.

Anyway, via some of this guest aggregator's fave people, the Capital Weather Gang, this is what a HURRICANE WATCH means (emphasis ours):

"A hurricane watch means that the stated conditions are possible within the next 48 hours for the specified areas. Folks considering a trip to the Outer Banks this weekend should probably hold off until at least late Friday afternoon or Friday night when the storm will have passed and/or until officials have stated it is safe."

HURRICANE WATCH! 5:16 P.M.: National Hurricane Center issues this:

 A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER ... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY.

OIL INDUSTRY UPDATE 4:56 P.M.: Guest aggregator here with possibly last post before baton is passed to next guest aggregator, or perhaps this story's original author. Brent crude prices closed at $74.64/barrel, according to Bloomberg Businessweek, whose Margot Habiby reports that Earl is to blame.

“It’s the last thing we need,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy. “It’s a big gasoline consumption weekend. Given how poor the gasoline demand has been, it will be a final parting blow for the summer driving season if people won’t hit the beach in droves.”

EVACUATION OF EASTERN SEABOARD UPDATE 4:46: FEMA administrator Craig Fugate tells the Associated Press that evacuations may be necessary if, as is not expected, Earl hits the East Coast.

OIL REFINERS UPDATE 4:39: East Coast oil refiners, the vast preponderance of which are located in the great states of New Jersey and Pennsylvania, are keeping an eye on Earl, reports Reuters' Janet McGurty. "We are keeping an eye on the storm," North Atlantic Refining of Newfoundland, Canada, spokesperson Gloria Slade tells McGurty, adding: "But we don't anticipate it will be an issue for us."

INSURANCE UPDATE 4:31: State Farm and Nationwide are among the insurers most at risk from Earl, reports Bloomberg's Inyoung Hwang. Was unable to Google out who insures Ryan Carnavale (got an e-mail out to a similarly named person), but he's almost certainly not paying enough.

INSANE SURFERS UPDATE 4:23: Guest aggregator is simultaneously awed and appalled by this quote surfer Ryan Carnavale gave South Carolina's WCSC-TV, the Lowcountry's News Leader: "We came out here to see what earl has to offer-what kinda waves," Carnavale told the station's nameless, capitalization- and em-dash-averse reporter.

FEMA UPDATE 4:12 P.M.: Guest aggregator here. FEMA is advising all East Coast residents to prepare emergency kits with 72 hours' worth of food and water, reports Bloomberg Businessweek. Also recommended: a family communications plan (a good idea for non-emergencies as well, in the humble opinion of this guest aggregator, who has more than once left his keys at home and arrived at work unable to lock up his bike only to find his wife thought the ringtone on her cell phone was the easily ignorable signal of a completed washer cycle in the basement). Somewhat confusingly, FEMA also reminds us "there are no hurricane warnings or watches in effect for the U.S. mainland." But get your food and water together just in case, and probably think about switching to Verizon.

FEMA UPDATE 4:05 P.M.: FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate tweets that Earl is producing dangerous rip currents along the East Coast, which is a strong argument for checking your TweetDeck before you go swimming, in the opinion of this guest aggregator and probably Trent Sprenkle of Harrisburg, Pa., as well.

UPDATE FROM ABC7's BRAD BELL IN OCEAN CITY, MD.: Lifeguards continue to make rescues even on a sparsely populated beach. We watched today as swimmer Trent Sprenkle from Harrisburg, Pa., was pulled out to sea by a rip current. Two lifeguards from the Ocean City Beach patrol dove in with rescue floats and after several minutes were able to pull Sprenkle to shore. Sprenkle told us he was stunned to look up and realize he had gotten so far to shore and was near the point of exhaustion from swimming when the rescuers reached him. He was otherwise uninjured. Surf conditions are expected to grow more dangerous as Earl moves up the coast. Town workers have begun preparations for the storm. Ocean City government spokesperson Donna Abbott tells us that emergency vehicles are being readied, their gas tanks filled. Loose objects that can become missiles in high winds will also be secured in the next few days. The expectation here though is for a glancing blow. Ocean City may experience high winds and surf but conditions are not expected to be bad enough to cause property damage. Ms. Abbott also says the forecast for the labor day weekend after the storm passes is good and she hopes tourists pay attention to the forecast but don't cancel plans to come to the beach.

MONARCH OF THE SEAS UPDATE 3:42: Royal Caribbean cruise ship Monarch of the Seas tried to call on CocoCay®, the cruise operator's Bahamian private island. The "gentle, translucent waters" surrounding CocoCay® were no match for Earl's boorish behavior, reports USA Today's Gene Sloan. Most likely also canceled: the parasailing adventure on CocoCay® suggested by the RC website, which you can now accomplish by standing on the deck of Monarch with an umbrella. Other cruise ships affected: Norwegian Jewel (docked in Nassau), Majesty of the Seas (staying put in Key West), Carnival Victory (St. Lucia), and many more. Stay with Sloan for updates.

UPDATE THAT INCLUDES AN AMAZING REFERENCE TO NEWSGATHERING GEAR 3:03: Just got word of how our world-beating weather forces from ABC7 will be deploying over the upcoming Earl-critical days. The key here is to hit the areas where Washington, D.C., area individuals go for vacations.

So: We'll have at least one individual reporting in all sorts of elements from the Outer Banks, a popular vacation spot on the North Carolina coast, as if anyone needed that descriptor. Also, closer to our television footprint, we will have three individuals working from Ocean City---two reporters and one weather expert. That's at least. Who knows---we could send even more!

But I am actually burying the lede here. These folks will be equipped with something called a "Backpack Live Mobile Unit" (BLMU), a cool apparatus that includes a bunch of mobile broadband cards that'll pull in a signal from just about any carrier---in much the same way that the killer seas are pulling in unwary bathers.

Our reporters and weatherpeople will be fully backpack-mobiled by Wednesday afternoon. They'll be channeling their work into ABC7 newscasts as well as to this website. Should be fun.

UPDATE 1:52: Maryland emergency officials are kicking into gear in advance of an Earl showing, according to Fox5.

UPDATE 1:31: Now for a bit of timeless information on Earl, courtesy of Wikipedia. There've apparently been "six tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean" over time bearing the name "Earl."

UPDATE 12:55: The redoubtable Willie Drye of National Geographic News has a nicely written post about the inevitable clash between our guy Earl and a not-so-impotent weather front coming off of the Great Lakes. It's this system that threatens to push Earl off the coast and ruin a glorious Labor Day weekend news event. Man, with all these weather systems pushing and shoving each other out of the way, it's clear that the atmosphere is a really rough place. Glad to be down here on the ground.

UPDATE 12:29: This TBD StormAggregationCenter has been preoccupied with how Earl and other storms like it will impact humans.

Till now, that is. Check out this post on the storm activity, which includes mention of how the ocean swells and winds will affect not swimmers, not homeowners, not the tourism industry, and not "Labor Day plans." But sea turtles.

Here's a little tidbit from the story, with all apologies for the fact that it is far afield from TBD's geofootprint and for said tidbit's sloppy writing: "Already, some sea turtles nests have been washed out of the beach sand by swells from what was Hurricane Danielle, county official said."

UPDATE 11:18: For a different view of the storm, DCist posted photos from the International Space Station, and NASA has hurricane photos on Flickr and the NASA Website. Check the National Weather Service for more images and National Hurricane Center tracking.

UPDATE 10:43: Veteran ABC7 reporter Brad Bell is headed back out to Ocean City for Day No. 2 of covering the runup to what could be a terribly windy end of week. In his story from yesterday, Bell covered the disappearance and presumed drowning of 23-year-old D.C. resident Melkes Delgado. "On Saturday 23-year-old Melkes Delgado chose to go swimming at about 8 p.m. with several friends in the area of 20th street. Delgado, father of a 1-year-old, hasn't been seen since."

Some more details on this case from Bell: The lifeguards at Ocean City work a shift that runs from 10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. Authorities have warned beachgoers not to take their chances with the waves after the lifeguards leave for the day. Even though Delgado chose to take his dip well after the lifeguards had finished for the day, they were still able to reach the scene within three minutes. That's because, according to Bell, Ocean City will often keep the lifeguards on some state of alert even after quitting time.

At the time of the Delgado incident, the lifeguards were reportedly stationed seven blocks away, in the vicinity of 27th Street. They received word of some people on trouble and made it to the scene in three minutes, according to Bell's reporting. The lifeguards were able to assist the other people who were enjoying the surf alongside Delgado. But they never even saw him.

"What happens is that people go in and can't swim and say, 'This is great.' Then they go in waist-deep, get knocked down, upside down and disoriented," says Bell.  

UPDATE 9:49: Weather.com is showing some pretty good tracking video of this beast. Pay particular attention to the part where the weather expert goes to the microwave imaging. It's all about the inner eyewall. That's the key right now to the future of this storm!

UPDATE 9:11: The Washington Post's marvelous Ed O'Keefe is reporting that FEMA is deploying up and down the coast, preparing to duke it out with Earl. O'Keefe's report includes this quote: "'We’re talking to the states, if they’re going to even have to start talking about evacuating, we have people designated to help them,' said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. Teams from the West Coast are headed to New England to assist if necessary, he said."

Original Storm Aggregation:

Hysteria relating to Hurricane Earl is the story of Tuesday morning. I awoke to this wonderful story by ABC 7, on the prospects for an utterly ruined Labor Day weekend. The piece carried this killer quote: "'Earl could approach the Outer banks of North Carolina as early as Thursday night,' said Jeanette Calle, Accuweather from Winick."

Impressed with this Jeanette Calle character, I checked in with AccuWeather.com. Wouldn't load. Checked again. Wouldn't load again. Before crushing the entire East coast, Earl is crushing the AccuWeather servers.

Time for some serious aggregation. Here's more: Capital Weather Gang, a group you can rely upon to have something to say about a hurricane, says this: "Powerful Hurricane Earl makes an attempt to menace the East Coast by week's end, but a sizable cold front is forecast to act like a pinball flipper and knock Earl back out to sea. Then a first-class weather weekend arrives!"

But what about the people on the shore? Let's look into that question. The AP is reporting that the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami has "warned coastal residents from North Carolina to Maine to watch the storm closely." Well, the Washington, D.C., metropolitan region is squarely in that swath -- and here at TBD, we are following orders.

The Washington Post's news section — as opposed to the Capital Weather Gang — appears to have started watching closely as well. But perhaps that vigilance got a late start. This morning, I unsheathed my edition of the Post (proud subscriber) to find a refer on the front page to a story on A2 about the storm. So I flipped to A2 expecting a big presentation on this thing.

Then I started squinting. It was just a little blurb, a few sentences from Reuters. Guess the weather-obsessed era of former Executive Editor Leonard Downie Jr. has headed out to sea.

Anyhow, who the hell cares about media crit. when there's a storm barreling up the coast.

ABC 7's forecast says that the weekend is going to be amazing: "The same front that will aid in kicking Earl away from the region will sweep through and set up for a very pleasant weekend featuring a good deal of sunshine, low humidity, and highs in the low to mid 80's."

Before then, however, there are going to be a lot of busy lifeguards. Ocean City has been the locus of much of this red-bathing-suited activity, as ABC 7's Brad Bell has reported. "The Ocean City Beach Patrol pulled several people from the water on Monday: One woman suffered a facial injury when a wave slammed her onto her boogie board; two swimmers had to be helicoptered out for treatment of neck and back injuries; another woman was knocked down so violently by a wave that she experienced paralysis from the neck down and was in serious condition."

Here's a warning to all you Earl fans out there: Don't get too enamored, because there's another contender out there, as CBS so elegantly articulates: "Close on Earl's heels, Tropical Storm Fiona formed Monday afternoon in the open Atlantic. The storm, with maximum winds of 40 mph, was projected to pass just north of the Leeward Islands by Wednesday and stay farther out in the Atlantic than Earl's northward path. Fiona wasn't expected to reach hurricane strength over the next several days."

Storm fanatics, keep TBD in mind. We'll be updating this stuff from the TBDStormAggregationCenter all day long.