Nationals need to get serious about re-signing Dunn

Correction:

Due to an editing error, an earlier version of this story misspelled Stephen Strasburg's first name and Danny Espinosa's last name. We regret the error.

Sign him.

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David Aldridge

Long story short

Aldridge: The Nats need to stop messing around and sign Dunn.

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Time's a wastin'.

In August, as the lawns go brown, and the cheeks get red in this heat storm, and Jet Blue flight attendants become white hot celebs, Adam Dunn, increasingly, sees green. Green, as in free agent dollars. Green, as in envy. He still believes in his heart that the Washington Nationals are going to be a contender, and soon, and he wants to play in big games for them. But the truth is the Nats probably are a year or two away, while there are a half-dozen or so other teams that can give him that chance, and as soon as next season.

All of Nationals Nation is hoping against hope that Stephen Strasburg's less-than-ordinary Tuesday was just the result of some rust from the 19 days since he last pitched -- obviously, if Thor's right shoulder is suffering from more than normal wear and tear, the Nats are in deep kimchi. But it's more likely that Strasmas will come again, maybe as soon as Sunday against Arizona. At any rate, the Nats have Strasburg under pre-arbitration control until 2013 and can keep him away from free agency until 2016. They can keep Dunn -- who hit his National League-leading 31st homer Wednesday -- away from free agency until October, and then, the Yankees and Red Sox and White Sox and whoever else can come calling, wallets wide open. The one thing the Nats have going for them is that Dunn is so pigheadedly optimistic.

"If It didn't feel like this team could win," Dunn said as he sat at his locker in the Nats' clubhouse Tuesday afternoon, "I wouldn't even put up this much effort to try to stay here."

Mike Rizzo said quite emphatically at the trade deadline that the Nats wouldn't trade Dunn unless they had their socks knocked off, and I guess Edwin Jackson does not remove argyles. So, unless there's a dramatic change in the offers (the Nats could still conceivably make a deal after they, in a bookkeeping move, put Dunn on waivers last week) or in the team's thinking, Washington has about a month and a half to convince Dunn and his representatives to agree to an extension. After that the Nats lose all their leverage.

"I've expressed how I felt here," Dunn said. "If it comes down to the end of the season, ... I would love to weigh my options. That's the good thing about being a free agent; you get to weigh your options. That's something that, I think if it got that far, I would definitely want to do."

Did you feel that cold breeze, too?

It is not an easy call, whether you should pay Dunn the $60 million for four years that he's reportedly seeking, or hold out for a shorter deal. Dunn is 30, and while he's played seven straight seasons of at least 152 games, and hit 40 homers or more in six of those last seven (38 last season, 31 and counting this season), big bodied sluggers tend to start trending down at about this time in their careers. Injuries, bat speed, whatever the reason, the slide is noticeable. Willie McCovey, for example, had a string of at least 31 homers in six of seven seasons, playing in at least 130 games in each of those seasons. But the year after hitting 39 homers in 1970, at age 32, McCovey went this way the next six: 18 homers in 105 games, 14 homers in 81 games, 29 in 130, 22 in 128, 23 in 122, 7 in 82. (He did have a great bounce-back year in 1977, at age 39, hitting 28 homers and driving in 86 runs in 141 games for the Giants.)

And I accept without argument that Dunn's below-average skills at first may lessen his overall value. Statistics like Ultimate Zone Rating (how many runs did he save or allow with his glove), which weigh a player's defense, supposedly give balance to judging a player's overall impact on his team. (Dunn's UZR/150, or Ultimate Zone Rating over 150 games -- a typical number of games played by an every-day player over a full season -- has been one of the worst in the game. The UZR is measured over three seasons so it did include some of his time in left field.) I'm not a stats whiz, but I don't reflexively ignore numbers, either, especially in baseball, and there are arguments for why Dunn is not worth the money.

Here comes the "but."

I have numbers, too.

Dunn's batting average was a career-best .272 entering play Wednesday, a year after hitting a career-best .267. His on-base and slugging percentage (OPS) was .932, the highest it's been in three years. His on-base percentage is down (.359 before Wednesday), but Dunn attributes that to taking far fewer walks this year (50 so far, which would project to his lowest total since his rookie season). Dunn is purposely being more aggressive early in counts, figuring that when he's on one of his hot streaks with the bat, as he was during the Nationals' west coast trip last week, he's going to get far fewer quality pitches to hit.

"That's one thing this year that I've really tried to work on," Dunn said. "I tried to work on it in the past, but I've always reverted back to my old self. But this year I've really stuck with it, is being aggressive early. I used to take a lot of pitches and have a bunch of walks, and this year, I don't have hardly any walks. I'm just being more aggressive than I've ever been, actually."

And, he adds, "I don't get paid to walk. I get paid to drive in runs."

More meaningful than the numbers is that Dunn feels a real comfort level in Washington, and his teammates swear by him. His presence has brought calm to the Nationals' clubhouse; his professionalism, Nyjer Morgan says, sets the example. Ryan Zimmerman has made it clear that he's paying close attention to what happens with his good friend, who is also his protection in the cleanup spot. Ditto Josh Willingham. Dunn also a great working relationship with hitting coach Rick Eckstein. In his second season with the Nationals. Eckstein has won over most everyone with his relentless work ethic -- 2 a.m. texts from Eckstein to Dunn are not uncommon -- and his ability to tinker with his players' swings; Dunn says Eckstein knows his swing better than he does.

The Nationals think Dunn is capable of more growth as a hitter.

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