Weatherman, editor disagree on heat trends

Everyone over here at StormWatch 7 is obsessed with the two-minute warning. Steve Rudin, in a recent blog post, referenced it. And ABC 7 Senior Meteorologist Robert Thomas Ryan (aGa "Bob Ryan") has mentioned these two minutes in repeated interviews about late-summer temperature trends in the Washington, D.C., area.

Comment

(Photo: Jay Westcott)

Long story short

This week will bring us closer to breaking the record for days above 90 degrees.

retweet

So just what are we talking about here? Here's what: At this point in the planetary year, we are losing about two minutes of daylight per day. Don't tell me you haven't noticed, either. Whatever you do between 7 and 8 p.m. -- watering the garden, bedtime with the kids, killer pushup workout -- you've by now figured out that nighttime is attacking earlier and earlier.

For people like Ryan, those two minutes mean something more than a lifestyle adjustment. They have critical meteorological implications, particularly with respect to temperature forecasts. Two minutes less of daylight mean that the sun has less time each day to bake earth.

That, in turn, makes it harder to set heat records. As of this morning, the D.C. region had racked up 55 days of temperatures at or above 90 degrees. And given the sizzling forecast, we could hit 60 by late in the week.

All of which brings up the delicious subject of 1980, when the region churned out 67 glorious, record-establishing days at 90 degrees or above. Ever since TBD launched earlier this month, we've been rooting to eclipse that mark.

What a seesaw battle it has been. Prospects looked great in the very heart of the month, when we hit the 51 mark by Aug. 11. Around that time, Ryan sounded optimistic about our chances for history: "Like many things, if you're getting this close, heading toward a record, what the heck."

Then we hit a rough patch during which the temperature only occasionally crested 90. Those were tough days, as TBD's patented and sleekly formatted "D.C. Heat Watch" took a vacation along with the rest of the region. It'll be back in the rotation all week, though.

Question is whether we'll be able to get to 68. Ryan is shaking his head. "I think that's a long shot," he says. "The averages are really against us," he adds noting that we're losing two minutes of daylight per day. (As if we hadn't heard that one before). In another couple of weeks, says Ryan, the averages are going to dip into the very low 80s and in about four weeks they'll be in the mid-70s.

So the meteorologist with decades of experience dealing with the weather says "no record" for 2010.

But an editor with several weeks' experience interviewing a meteorologist with decades of experience dealing with the weather says we're right on schedule for a record-breaking year. "They say the atmosphere has a memory," says TBD Editor Erik Wemple. "I'd say we'll hit the 68 mark by the third week in September, and I wouldn't rule out a pair of scorchers in October. Let's not underestimate this region."

No comments