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One of the nation's closest congressional races is expected to be Virginia's 11th, which includes Fairfax, most of Fairfax County and parts of Prince William County. Here, Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly is facing a strong challenge from Republican Keith Fimian, a small businessman. Fimian lost to Connolly in 2008, but hopes a conservative wave can lift him. TBD is providing updates from the ground throughout the day.

10:23 p.m. This race appears headed for recount land. With 97 percent of precincts reporting, Connolly leads Fimian with 49.14 percent of the vote to 48.8 percent. Under Virginia law, any election decided by less than 1 percent can be subject to a recount if the losing candidate asks for it. There are 17,000 absentee ballots remaining, and the Connolly campaign tells TBD they have an edge there. If it's big enough, it could avoid a recount. Otherwise, Fairfax could have its own version of Bush versus Gore.

9:54 p.m. With 90 percent reporting, Connolly is up by 500 votes. Three precincts left in Prince William, thirteen in Fairfax. Doesn't look good for Fimian.

9:50 p.m. Let's do some geographic breaking down. Connolly is winning by 4,000 votes in Fairfax, where he served on the Board of Supervisors for more than a decade and where his get-out-the-vote machine would be strongest. He's only down 3,000 in more conservative Prince William County. The Democrat also leads in Fairfax City.

9:40 p.m. Connolly is now ahead by 3,300 votes. Really live updates here at Virginia's election website, which updates just a tad faster that TBD's AP feed.

9:32 p.m. This race remains extremely close. Fimian currently is ahead by 300 votes. We're going to try to be the first to float this word: Recount?

9:02 p.m.  With more than 50 percent reporting, Connolly has pulled ahead slightly. Fox News feed is slightly behind the Virginia State Board of Elections, so the crowd doesn't know it yet.

8:54 p.m. With 35 percent of the precincts reporting, Fimian leads by 215 votes. Early in the night, the scene at the Fimian party was pretty jubilant, as Republicans handily won other competitive races in Virginia. Now, just a tinge of worry is setting in.

8:06 p.m. Results are starting to trickle in, and the crowd at Fimian's watch party at the Mason Inn in Fairfax is cheering every lead the Republican gets, no matter how marginal.

Republicans are doing well in races in the southern half of the state, increasing conservative optimism. Both Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli and former governor George Allen are supposed to be here tonight.

Throughout the day, most of the voters TBD talked to -- an obviously unscientific sampling -- seemed to be favoring Fimian, with the most cited issue being the federal deficit. Connolly voters were more likely to mention social issues like abortion and gun rights.

What does this tell TBD? Voters are very good at absorbing the respective talking points for their side.

1:46 p.m. Fimian showed up at the Oak Marr Recreation Center to vote at around 11:30. He didn't get a chance to vote until much later The line at the recreation center was at least two dozen deep. Turnout seems to be up in Virginia, according to the Washington Post.

Fimian chatted with voters outside the recreation center, although he seemed to mainly be preaching to the converted. He had spent the morning in Prince William County, he said, and was pleased with the level of support he saw there and by the lack of a real Connolly campaign presence at some precincts.

With the Post and Fimian pointing to brisk turnout, campaign volunteers saying it's average, and other reports indicating it's low, what should you make of all this? Listen to Atlantic politics writer Marc Ambinder: "Beware the turnout anecdote."

12:42 p.m. Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele arrived a bit late to the Fairfax Republican headquarters, but he brought donuts. The volunteers didn't seem to mind his tardiness.

And why would they? Fairfax trended slightly Republican last year after losing its red color during election cycles in the early half of the decade. Not only did Gov. Bob McDonnell win the suburban county, a Republican also won a supervisor's seat that had been in Democratic hands for years.

Braddock District Supervisor John Cook won his seat last year by a mere 89 votes, a close call he was on hand to remind volunteers about.

"This is tight race here in the 11th District, it's going to be close," Cook said, encouraging them to continue hitting the phones, a call that Steele echoed. Shortly before Steele left, county officials said the group had already made 5,000 calls.

Why the enthusiasm? Why, Mr. Chairman, are Fairfax and Virginia going Republican again?

"I think that where the party, you know, has not paid attention and stayed tuned in to what people are feeling and saying out there, we lose," Steele said in an interview. "That's exactly what happened here. We watched the Democrats sort of mold this new style Democrat, this Blue Dog or the conservative Democrat, we saw it in Tim Kaine, we saw it in Senator Warner, and we paid the price."

Steele was confident about Fimian's chances, but acknoledged that voters were still wary and distrustful of the Republican party.

"We can't take anything for granted here," he said. 

9:48 a.m. Newsweek has declared this district to be a bellwether for the rest of the county. But what's the bellwether for the district? Virginia politics blogger Ben Tribblet, who writes at Not Larry Sabato, has the answer:

[I]f Northern Prince William isn't outvoting the rest of the 11th CD by 10 a.m. tomorrow, Keith Fimian is in big trouble, because many of those voters can't get home in time in the afternoon- while polling places in Fairfax will be packed in the evening rush. In other words, Fimian wins by 10 a.m. or he doesn't win at all.

By that standard, things don't look too good. At Potomac View Elementary School, right across the Fairfax-Prince William border, 153 out of 1800 registered voters had cast their ballots so far. The area is clearly Fimian territory -- the few voters I talked to were unanimous in their support for the Republican, and the area was dotted with Fimian and 'Don't Trend on Me' yard signs -- but the enthusiasm gap isn't showing up here. Things were downright sleepy at the polling place, and volunteers said turnout was about standard for a midterm election.