Truth-tellers, liars and equivocators

Ehrlich vs. O'Malley in the 2010 Maryland Governor's race: Is Maryland the nation's bluest state?

October 26, 2010 - 06:00 AM
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Former governor Bob Ehrlich knows he’s tilling tough ground in his race against incumbent Martin O’Malley, and he won’t hesitate to remind voters.

Maryland is "the bluest state in the country," the Republican has said multiple times during rallies, speeches and debates in recent weeks.

No one doubts that Maryland has been unfriendly territory for Republicans. When Ehrlich took office as governor in 2002, he was the first member of the GOP to hold the office since Spiro Agnew in the late 1960s (and the first non-corrupt GOP member to hold it since Theodore McKeldin, who held the office for most of the 1950s). Seven of the state’s eight U.S. House districts -- thanks in part to a friendly redistricting process in 2000 -- are in Democratic hands. A Republican hasn’t been attorney general since 1954. The state hasn’t seen a GOP comptroller since 1900. Democrats hold a two-to-one edge in voter registration, and a massive edge in the General Assembly.

Though Ehrlich convinced Democrats to break party ranks in 2002, he’s having a bit more difficulty this year. Two recent polls have him down 14 points.

Even with all that, Ehrlich’s depiction of Maryland as the bluest of the blue intrigued The Facts Machine. What about Massachusetts? Or California, with liberal bastions like San Francisco and Los Angeles? The Hippie-Farmer paradise of Vermont? Or Illinois, home of the current president and the formidable Chicago Democratic machine?

Judging “blueness” is more difficult than you think. To start, there’s a difference between a state being heavily liberal and a state being heavily Democratic. While ideology and party identification track one another, they aren’t synonymous. (The best example of this is probably West Virginia, which usually elects Democrats to statewide positions but goes for conservative Republicans in presidential races.)

Let’s also dispatch with one easy answer. The District of Columbia isn’t a state, so we won’t include it here.

So how do we rate blueness? Luckily, a few rating systems already exist. The most popular is probably the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voter Index, which measures how strongly states and congressional districts lean towards one party or the other.

Using data from the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, Maryland has a score of +9 Democratic, trailing Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New York.

That's one way of measuring it, but maybe the Old Line State has seen a new surge of liberal voters in recent years that Cook hasn't picked up on. So let's look at another measure.

According to daily Gallup tracking polls taken from January to June of this year, Maryland had a 22 percentage point Democratic edge in party identification, trailing only Vermont, which has a 26 point edge.

Strike two.

Of course, there are elements to liberalism election results don't reflect. Policy outcomes in Vermont and Massachusetts — both of which have legalized gay marriage and have extensive taxpayer-funded health care programs — provide further evidence for the argument that those states are more liberal than Maryland.

Each state also has its own unique political history and traditions. Maryland has a strong history of conservative Democrats working to moderate the tendencies of legislators from Baltimore City and the Washington suburbs. At the same time, the state's large black population makes it a more difficult Republican pickup since blacks tend to have stronger Democratic partisan identification than white voters.

In comparison, Massachusetts has a history of liberal-to-moderate Republicans that Maryland seems to lack. (That's why Massachusetts elected Republican governors from 1990 to 2006.)

In the end, Ehrlich's statement is only a slight exaggeration. Looking at both policy outcomes and election results, Maryland doesn't top the liberal pile, but it's among the bluest. Unfortunately, The Facts Machine frowns upon inappropriate use of the superlative. Ehrlich gets a Total Malarkey.

Total Malarkey
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  1. greglh greglh

    Greg H

    Oct 27, 2010 - 02:31:28 PM

    Robert... I'm from Maryland. Laugh all you want, but voting someone out with ANYONE puts our community, country and progress at risk. I'll take O'Malley over Ehrlich anyday. If you want to post faults make sure you are ready to address the faults of Ehrlich as well and there are plenty. Homeowners and jobless don't need a person who has BENEFITTED from what he now wants to shutdown with fake promises that will add many consequences to our situation. The fact is if those that benefitted and Ehrlich is in this company from the bailout had acted responsibly things would be a lot better. Instead they gave themselves huge bonuses for their corruption and that corruption was allowed why??? Smaller Government. Lead poisoning easily getting into our kids toys how???? Smaller Government. Republicans once again play on your desperation and fear as they always do. They put us in this mess with 8 years of not having to answer to anyone and this country expects just 2 years to dig out? So America is willing to give up on its values out of desperation which it too has shown time and time again. Including various consitutional rights and freedoms. I just wish people would make up their mind what they really want. But I will not bow down to terror politics that every election year this group displays. I had considered being an independent, but that means flipfloping and putting Palin people in to run our country then forget that. Republicans wanting a balanced budget or less spending is such a big joke it is so sad to see people actually believing this considering they put us in the situation we are in.

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  2. Robert Winstead Robert Winstead

    Robert Winstead

    Oct 27, 2010 - 01:05:35 PM

    Those in Maryland make me laugh. All year long they have complained about what the Democrats are doing to their state yet when they have a chance to send a message, they vote them back in. When your elected officials spend money on illegals while tax payers are being laid off and lobby for amnesty please don't complain anymore.

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