what statistical probability is there that this candidate has a chance of winning in November?

Well, I'm not for Barr and I am not here to bash him. But I'd like you to vote for Barr because he steals votes from the conservative* ticket of McCain-Palin. On the other hand, I really hope Nader gets no votes at all.

*I'm thinking about dropping my use of the terms Democrat and Republican, when what they really are are the moderately-conservate (Modcons?) and moderately-liberal (Modlibs?)parties. Barr's in the all-out conservative party, and Nader's in the all-out liberal party.

According to an interesting site called www.270towin.com, there is an 85 percent chance that Obama will win. It's based on an average of polls in every state, and uses a mathematical formula to predict the various ways the swing states might go. Out of every 100 simulations they run, Obama wins 85 times. It's pretty interesting. Unfortunately, the java script that takes you from the homepage to the simulation page does not always work.

I think if you really are interested in voting for him you should just go ahead and have yourself committed and get yourself of a 24/7 watch to make sure you don't take up some other form of worthless and wasteful ideology.