Posted: Mar 3, 08 11:51am
Putin Prevails!
Vald Putin has successfully positioned his own man to succeed him (while he stands behind him with hand inserted into mouth moving mechanism). This was done with the assent of the people who perceive Putin very favorably (see link at the end).
We silly but well intentioned Americans...
We must realize that there is a finite appetite for democracy in other parts of the world. Our illusion that there are droves of potential converts misses the 400 lb. gorilla in room. This potent primate guards against any entrance to the gate of change has a name and that name is "Cultural Norms". Russians, Arabs, Chinese and others are not yearning to breathe free, they seem to be more focused on eating better.
Cultural Traditions are really tough to shift and outside influences are insufficient to derail a people's center of gravity. Russians, Eastern Europeans, Mexican's and South American countries, and of course middle eastern nations are much more comfortable with "strong men" characters as their nation's "Father Figure" complete with belt/fist/sickle in hand.
Economic self-interest and the immense gravitational forces of cultural indoctrination are far too strong to be offset by the allure of individual rights or empowerment of the masses. From time to time, our own 200+ year experienced, democratic electorate has tossed pieces of liberty to the wind in exchange for voting their pocketbook or to embrace security (real or imagined).
The evidence of this dynamic is woven through histories quilt in centuries which points to the future with predictable consistency. Yet, we continue to play this increasingly impotent "democracy card" to advance our agenda throughout the world. Frankly, I wish we would limit our agenda(s) in the world to true security and economic self interest tied to successful strategies and tactics.
Why are people like Putin, Chavez, Amadinejad, and other anti-democratic forces surging? Three reasons; two very tangible and the other less so but equally important.
1) THE ECONOMIC ADVANTAGE OF OIL, Russian Economic Stability was achieved not due to Putin's grasp of capitalism, but rather his aggressive political move to oust private energy companies to bring that cash cow under his control. Chavez has played the same hand, and Amadinejad has always had that sway but now Oil is $100 a barrel.
2) ENTRENCHED CULTURAL REALITIES, Our faith in the ability of democracy to trump much older cultures is fanciful. People advocate for change when pain, hunger, or other forms of oppression are almost overwhelming. The phrase of "even a worm will turn" indicates it is possible but you first have to feel like a worm before you wiggle. It is only in the aftermath of such change that poets (who call themselves historians) add music to the nasty business of deconstruction of governments and their power icons. Just ask, King Louie, Czar Nicolas, and less well know despots who litter histories gutters.
3) THE FADING VISION OF DEMOCRACY, The last four years have shown the world the soiled petticoat under democracies skirt. We have shown domestically and internationally that our ideals yield to the convenient agenda of economic self interest. Even individual civil liberties are whisked away as our own straw/strong man offers his "protection" (insert Tony Soprano icon here). Unfortunately most of the people roll over in the field with only an occasional Bleat or Bah. This plays poorly in Iran where the young people actually do have a sense that democracy might bring a better life to the Iranians.
Our relationship with China has demonstrated to the world that economic health is not necessarily tied to political liberty (bad decision in my humble opinion).
We would be well served to advocate Freedoms Breeze with a prelude of an Economic Hurricane which can only be advanced if we secure our own economic swagger. This requires;
1) Getting off oil and thereby stop the economic bleeding of a Trillion spilled ever-depressed greenbacks to places that use these dollars to strengthen their own position.
2) Reset the trade policies that don't sentence our own manufacturing acumen to irrelevance.
3) Re-embrace the tenets of Liberty, the Constitution and the rule of law however inconvenient. Show that the ideals of our governance are not shallow platitudes that are easily set aside when the winds of challenge blow in our face.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/03/02/russia.election/index.html
...and his mouth didn't move at all!
